Where heat pumps pay off
For a typical house, a heat pump put in by a contractor pays for itself within 10 years in 99% of US ZIP codes if the house heats with oil, 98% with electric baseboard heat, 94% with propane and 11% with gas.
Tap or hover a place for its numbers. Colors are for the heat pump with the lowest 10-year cost at each place. As of 2026-11-05.
Installed by the owner, the shares are over 99% (oil), over 99% (electric baseboard), over 99% (propane) and 49% (gas).
The typical house: 1,800 sq ft, built 1970 to 1989, the heat pump heating all of it and the old heat kept for the hours it is cheaper. Heating costs only. How
What the map says
Gas heat
Typical savings $120 a year on a $1,350 heating bill. Pays for itself within 10 years in 11% of US ZIP codes with a hired installer, 49% if you install it yourself.
Saves most in Washington ($850), Oregon ($650), Arkansas ($460). Least in Michigan ($0), Alaska ($0), Montana ($0).
Oil heat
Typical savings $2,800 a year on a $4,300 heating bill. Pays for itself within 10 years in 99% of US ZIP codes with a hired installer, over 99% if you install it yourself.
Saves most in North Dakota ($5,600), Alaska ($4,950), Montana ($4,500). Least in Hawaii ($0), Florida ($500), Arizona ($710).
Propane heat
Typical savings $1,100 a year on a $2,550 heating bill. Pays for itself within 10 years in 94% of US ZIP codes with a hired installer, over 99% if you install it yourself.
Saves most in Vermont ($3,500), Connecticut ($3,450), Rhode Island ($3,150). Least in Hawaii ($0), Iowa ($340), Arizona ($350).
Electric baseboard heat
Typical savings $2,750 a year on a $4,100 heating bill. Pays for itself within 10 years in 98% of US ZIP codes with a hired installer, over 99% if you install it yourself.
Saves most in Alaska ($12,400), Maine ($9,000), New Hampshire ($7,600). Least in Hawaii ($20), Florida ($390), Arizona ($560).
Every state
Typical yearly savings for the house, contractor installed, and the share of the state's ZIP codes where it pays back within 10 years. Each state has its own page with every place.
| State | Gas | Oil | Propane | Electric baseboard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $270 · 9% | $1,650 · 100% | $1,250 · 100% | $1,400 · 100% |
| Alaska | $0 · 0% | $4,950 · 100% | $1,250 · 100% | $12,400 · 100% |
| Arizona | $180 · 27% | $710 · 100% | $350 · 64% | $560 · 100% |
| Arkansas | $460 · 100% | $1,950 · 100% | $830 · 100% | $1,400 · 100% |
| California | $210 · 2% | $1,300 · 100% | $450 · 59% | $2,750 · 100% |
| Colorado | $20 · 0% | $3,150 · 100% | $1,050 · 100% | $2,900 · 100% |
| Connecticut | $30 · 0% | $3,550 · 100% | $3,450 · 100% | $5,700 · 100% |
| Delaware | $240 · 0% | $3,100 · 100% | $2,300 · 100% | $3,150 · 100% |
| Florida | $230 · 31% | $500 · 75% | $600 · 78% | $390 · 68% |
| Georgia | $430 · 93% | $1,750 · 100% | $1,150 · 100% | $1,500 · 100% |
| Hawaii | $10 · 5% | $0 · 5% | $0 · 0% | $20 · 5% |
| Idaho | $0 · 0% | $4,350 · 100% | $2,150 · 100% | $2,800 · 100% |
| Illinois | $0 · 0% | $2,950 · 100% | $360 · 79% | $3,200 · 100% |
| Indiana | $20 · 0% | $3,400 · 100% | $1,200 · 100% | $2,900 · 100% |
| Iowa | $10 · 0% | $3,600 · 100% | $340 · 82% | $3,600 · 100% |
| Kansas | $240 · 0% | $2,700 · 100% | $740 · 100% | $2,100 · 100% |
| Kentucky | $240 · 0% | $2,600 · 100% | $1,450 · 100% | $2,000 · 100% |
| Louisiana | $260 · 1% | $1,200 · 100% | $570 · 100% | $720 · 100% |
| Maine | $10 · 0% | $3,300 · 100% | $2,350 · 100% | $9,000 · 100% |
| Maryland | $170 · 0% | $2,800 · 100% | $2,050 · 100% | $3,350 · 100% |
| Massachusetts | $380 · 8% | $3,450 · 100% | $2,450 · 100% | $7,400 · 100% |
| Michigan | $0 · 0% | $3,800 · 100% | $620 · 100% | $5,600 · 100% |
| Minnesota | $10 · 0% | $4,350 · 100% | $630 · 100% | $4,250 · 100% |
| Mississippi | $270 · 12% | $1,600 · 100% | $980 · 100% | $1,100 · 100% |
| Missouri | $190 · 0% | $2,600 · 100% | $760 · 100% | $2,200 · 100% |
| Montana | $0 · 0% | $4,500 · 100% | $1,200 · 100% | $3,750 · 100% |
| Nebraska | $70 · 0% | $3,050 · 100% | $600 · 100% | $2,350 · 100% |
| Nevada | $190 · 16% | $1,850 · 100% | $880 · 100% | $1,200 · 100% |
| New Hampshire | $20 · 0% | $3,750 · 100% | $3,100 · 100% | $7,600 · 100% |
| New Jersey | $0 · 0% | $2,900 · 100% | $2,200 · 100% | $4,600 · 100% |
| New Mexico | $0 · 0% | $2,450 · 100% | $1,150 · 100% | $2,250 · 100% |
| New York | $10 · 0% | $3,700 · 100% | $2,600 · 100% | $7,300 · 100% |
| North Carolina | $330 · 54% | $2,200 · 100% | $1,750 · 100% | $1,800 · 100% |
| North Dakota | $20 · 0% | $5,600 · 100% | $800 · 100% | $3,550 · 100% |
| Ohio | $30 · 0% | $3,600 · 100% | $1,200 · 100% | $3,700 · 100% |
| Oklahoma | $160 · 0% | $1,850 · 100% | $710 · 100% | $1,450 · 100% |
| Oregon | $650 · 100% | $3,400 · 100% | $1,700 · 100% | $2,900 · 100% |
| Pennsylvania | $20 · 0% | $3,150 · 100% | $1,550 · 100% | $4,450 · 100% |
| Rhode Island | $250 · 0% | $3,800 · 100% | $3,150 · 100% | $6,900 · 100% |
| South Carolina | $280 · 0% | $1,900 · 100% | $920 · 100% | $1,600 · 100% |
| South Dakota | $10 · 0% | $4,300 · 100% | $800 · 100% | $3,250 · 100% |
| Tennessee | $120 · 0% | $2,350 · 100% | $1,500 · 100% | $1,450 · 100% |
| Texas | $250 · 10% | $1,150 · 99% | $630 · 95% | $880 · 98% |
| Utah | $40 · 0% | $3,400 · 100% | $1,450 · 100% | $2,150 · 100% |
| Vermont | $170 · 0% | $4,200 · 100% | $3,500 · 100% | $6,600 · 100% |
| Virginia | $240 · 0% | $2,500 · 100% | $2,050 · 100% | $2,650 · 100% |
| Washington | $850 · 100% | $3,700 · 100% | $1,850 · 100% | $2,900 · 100% |
| West Virginia | $130 · 0% | $3,150 · 100% | $1,400 · 100% | $2,600 · 100% |
| Wisconsin | $0 · 0% | $4,200 · 100% | $470 · 100% | $4,600 · 100% |
| Wyoming | $130 · 0% | $4,300 · 100% | $2,100 · 100% | $3,050 · 100% |
How these numbers are made
Every place on the map is the area closest to one of 1,983 weather stations. For each one we ran the HeatPushers home model (the same code you can use for your own house) with the past year of hourly weather at that station (2025-10-28 to 2026-10-28) and the state's average electricity and fuel prices from the EIA (the US average where the EIA has no figure for the state).
- The house: 1,800 sq ft, 2 stories, built 1970 to 1989 (wall insulation R-14, attic R-16), 3 bedrooms, thermostat at 70°F. The heat pump heats the whole house.
- Heat today: gas furnace (80% efficient); oil boiler (85% efficient); propane furnace (92% efficient); electric baseboard (100% efficient). Furnace houses have ducts inside the heated space; boiler and baseboard houses have no ducts, so only ductless heat pumps count there.
- The heat pump: out of 772 models sold online, the one with the lowest 10-year cost (price, installation and energy), in the number of units that costs least. The old heat stays and takes over in the hours it is cheaper to run.
- Installation: a contractor at $2,500 per indoor unit, or yourself: $350 of tools once and $300 of materials per indoor unit.
- Payback: what it costs up front divided by what it saves a year. Under 10 years means it pays for itself within the lifetime we assume.
- Heating only. Cooling is left out. A heat pump also cools: against old central AC that saves a bit more; in a house without AC, using it in summer costs extra.
- Not included: rebates and tax credits, electrical upgrades, new ductwork, heat-pump electricity rates and financing.
- Shares of ZIP codes: each place counts by how many US ZIP codes are closest to its station, so cities count more than empty desert.
Your house is not this house. Size, insulation, prices and what you already own change the answer, often a lot. Use "Model your own house here" on the map, or start at the home model. How the model was checked against real homes and field studies: How we know.
Download the data
heat-pump-payoff-by-place.csv: one row per place, kind of heat and install (15,864 rows), with column definitions and build details. Free to use with credit (CC BY 4.0): HeatPushers, "Where heat pumps pay off", https://www.heatpushers.com/where-heat-pumps-pay-off.
Rebuilt each month with fresh weather, prices and store listings. This build: 2026-11-05.
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